US resin exports have ticked higher as the war in the Middle East shuts off the largest source of global plastics supply. The sustainability of the export demand, though, hinges largely on the war’s duration and the capacity of North American producers to make more resin.
Export container bookings for resins hit 6,191 on March 16, according to maritime visibility provider Vizion. That compares with the nearly 3,500 to 4,500 daily bookings typically made throughout all of 2026.
The first week of March saw the highest number of export resin bookings, 22,653, since the last week of January. Most bookings occur during weekdays.
The bookings come as Iran’s attacks on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have cut off the Middle East’s resin producers from world markets. The Middle East accounts for 15% of global polyethylene supply, the most widely traded type of resin, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The disruption in the Gulf has already sent US polyethylene prices higher. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, said Thursday that US prices have tripled since Feb. 25, now hovering between $1,268 and $1,290 per metric ton, depending on the grade.
“The sharp price increases reflected a fundamental shift in global supply dynamics, as the US emerged as the primary supplier of polyethylene ... following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” Platts said.
Asia and Europe are the most affected by the disruption in Middle East resin exports, Shruthi Vangipuram, an analyst with Wood Mackenzie, told the Journal of Commerce. While both regions have their own resin production, they depend on crude oil feedstocks that have also become more expensive.
“Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have been impacted the most,” she said. “Producers in the region are struggling to secure feedstock and operating rates in these countries have been severely curtailed.”
Vangipuram estimates that resin plants in Asia and Europe are running at only about 70% of their production capacity due to higher prices for feedstock crude oil. In contrast, US producers are running at about 90% utilization. She said US producers can delay maintenance to keep production levels high through the second quarter, but that would still not fill the gap in global demand.
“We can flex to 95%, 98% utilization, but it depends on which markets it makes sense to sell to,” Vangipuram said.
Pricing arbitrage favors trans-Atlantic
Export capacity from the US to Asia is ample, according to an executive of a third-party logistics provider, who estimated that backhaul utilization for most ocean carriers hovers near 50%. Spot rates for dry freight to Asia from the US Gulf, which dominates resin exports, are currently running between $500 and $700 for a standard-sized container, while shipping a 20-foot container used primarily for resins runs about 80% of that rate.
Trans-Atlantic rates have also been stable, hovering near $1,100 for a 20-foot container from the US Gulf to Northern Europe, according to Xeneta. The rate for shipping a 20-foot container out of the Southeast Atlantic ports has moved higher since the start of the year, going from just over $700 to $757 this week, Xeneta said. Carriers are removing ships and port calls from trans-Atlantic services, tightening up some of the capacity in that market.
Outbound US cargo does not face any significant delays with bookings available about two weeks out. The real risk for shippers will be in fuel surcharges that are being applied on global trades due to the Middle East war, as well as a potential general rate increase in April.
Outside of freight rates and vessel space, Vangipuram said the real driver for US exports will be the direction of local pricing. Asian prices will still need to move higher to attract more US imports. With a four- to six-week lead time for imports, Asian buyers will need to see the conflict drag out before buying from the US.
Europe, which is the second-biggest market for US resins after South America, has seen its benchmark polyethylene prices rise by one-third since the end of February. Vangipuram said Europe would likely be the first market to see additional US imports thanks to the much shorter voyage time and the sharper price move.
“The arbitrage works out better in the Atlantic than to Asia because of freight rates and shorter shipping times,” Vangipuram said. “We may not see the volume from the US make it into those markets that would appear to need it most.”